Cobalt 2050: Unlocking Potential for a Net-Zero Future

Net-zero transition will require three times more cobalt; investment and policies are critical

London, 8 October 2024. Cobalt is indispensable for reaching the global 2050 net-zero target, demonstrates BloombergNEF’s groundbreaking study, commissioned by Cobalt Institute. Key sectors - EV batteries, aerospace, defence and consumer electronics - will increase cobalt demand three-fold by 2050, driven by the global commitment to achieve the energy transition. Fully unlocking cobalt’s potential to help deliver a net-zero future urgently demands significant capital deployment and new production capacity, together with policies incentivizing demand, competitiveness, and recycling.

Dinah McLeod, Cobalt Institute Director General, said: “Cobalt is an essential element of the energy transition jigsaw. Investment, new mines, and good policies are urgently needed to build a robust cobalt value chain that is ready to help achieve a successful global transition to net-zero.”

Kwasi Ampofo, Head of Metals and Mining at BloombergNEF and the author of the report, added: “The average time to discover and build new cobalt producing mines can be up to ten years in some jurisdictions. The time to ensure there is enough supply to meet future demand is now”. Reaching the 2050 net-zero targets will require the urgent decarbonization of road transport and hence the fast deployment of batteries. Cumulatively, batteries for EVs, consumer electronics and stationary storage will require at least 5.5 million tons of cobalt – one of the key battery elements ensuring range, safety and durability –  by 2050 to power these critical energy transition industries.

The demand for cobalt in superalloys is expected to grow almost four-fold by 2050 to 55,000 metric tons, driven by the growing number of orders for military aircraft, the development of the next generation air force equipment, as well as the growth in applications for space exploration and satellites. Such growth in demand across all sectors will require a corresponding growth in supply to keep up. Over $1.7 billion of new investment is required by 2050 to build the new cobalt mines needed to meet global demand for net zero. Equally, substantial investments are needed to prepare the cobalt recycling sector when the current generation of lithium-ion batteries reaches the end of their initial life six to 15 years from now. We therefore urgently need to deploy the needed capital today to build a reliable cobalt supply chain and prevent deficits in the future.

If cobalt’s potential is going to be fully unlocked to support the energy transition, governments will have to implement effective policies to incentivize demand, competitively grow supply, and prioritize recycling.

The BloombergNEF public report is the first of its kind for any energy transition metal, and focuses on three main areas:

• exploring the future demand for cobalt and its role in crucial energy transition technologies in the US, Europe, and China.
• demonstrating how cobalt underpins the net-zero goal by producing scenarios for cobalt demand development by 2050 in key sectors: EV and stationary storage batteries, aerospace and defence.
• outlining cobalt’s role as an enabler in deployment of  cutting-edge technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), space exploration, and drones.

The Cobalt 2050: Unlocking Potential for a Net-Zero Future report was developed by BloombergNEF for Cobalt Institute.

Media contact: Marina Demidova, Head of Communications, Cobalt Institute: mdemidovaext@cobaltinstitute.org